Who Benefits from the War in Ukraine?

Who Benefits from the War in Ukraine?
Based on your question and the context of our previous discussions, I will focus on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and identify specific beneficiaries, emphasizing the role of global Western elites as highlighted in the updated article. The analysis incorporates economic, geopolitical, and military dimensions, grounded in data available as of October 2025. I will also include other global players for a comprehensive view, while keeping the response concise and structured.
1. Global Western Elites
Global Western elites, encompassing the military-industrial complex, energy corporations, financial institutions, and political leaders, reap significant economic and geopolitical benefits from the war, as it strengthens their influence and generates substantial profits.
Military-Industrial Complex (United States and Europe):
Who Specifically: Companies such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Boeing (USA), Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, and Thales (Europe).
Why It’s Beneficial: The conflict has surged demand for weapons, air defense systems, tanks, and munitions. The U.S. has allocated over $113 billion in military aid to Ukraine since 2022, with approximately 70% returning to the U.S. economy through defense contracts (e.g., Javelin missiles, HIMARS systems). Germany, the largest European donor, provided €9 billion in military aid in 2025, including Leopard tanks, boosting Rheinmetall’s revenues by €10 billion in 2024–2025. Stock prices for Lockheed Martin and RTX have risen 25–30% since the war began.
Mechanism of Influence: Lobbying through Political Action Committees (PACs) and firms like Akin Gump ensures support in the U.S. Congress and European parliaments. For instance, House Speaker Mike Johnson approved $61 billion in aid in 2024 under pressure from defense lobbyists.
Energy Corporations (United States, Qatar, Norway):
Who Specifically: ExxonMobil, Chevron (USA), QatarEnergy (Qatar), Equinor (Norway).
Why It’s Beneficial: The drastic reduction of Russian gas exports to Europe (from 155 billion cubic meters in 2021 to under 30 billion in 2023) has boosted U.S. and Qatari LNG exports. The U.S. became Europe’s top LNG supplier, exporting 56 billion cubic meters in 2023, while Norway increased gas exports by 8%. High energy prices (gas in Europe hit €300 per MWh in 2022) generated record profits for ExxonMobil ($55.7 billion) and Chevron ($35.5 billion) in 2022–2023.
Mechanism of Influence: Energy elites secure long-term contracts with Europe (e.g., Qatar’s agreements with Germany in 2023), reinforcing Europe’s dependence on non-Russian sources.
Financial Elites and Speculators:
Who Specifically: Hedge funds, investment banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase), commodity traders (Vitol, Trafigura), and asset managers (BlackRock, Vanguard).
Why It’s Beneficial: The war creates market volatility in oil, gas, metals, and currencies, enabling speculators to profit from price swings. Vitol earned $15 billion in 2022 due to commodity market instability. BlackRock and Vanguard, managing trillions in assets, benefit from investments in defense and energy firms, capitalizing on rising stock prices.
Mechanism of Influence: Financial elites shape economic policy through investments and lobbying, supporting prolonged conflict as a market stimulus.
Western Political Elites:
Who Specifically: Politicians such as Joe Biden (former U.S. President), Olaf Scholz (former German Chancellor), Friedrich Merz (German Chancellor since 2025), Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), Antony Blinken (U.S. Secretary of State).
Why It’s Beneficial: The conflict bolsters their political influence by consolidating NATO and increasing Europe’s reliance on the U.S. Biden’s $175 billion aid to Ukraine enhanced U.S. geopolitical leverage. Scholz and Merz, by increasing Germany’s defense budget to €108.2 billion for 2026, strengthen Germany’s role as NATO’s European leader, benefiting domestic elite support. Von der Leyen’s push for €50 billion in EU aid to Ukraine integrates Kyiv into Western structures.
Mechanism of Influence: Lobbying by defense and energy corporations, coupled with public narratives of “defending democracy,” sustains support. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s visits to the U.S. Congress are coordinated by lobbyists tied to the defense industry.
2. Other Global Players
Beyond Western elites, other entities also benefit, though their interests may diverge from Western goals.
China (State and Companies):
Who Specifically: Chinese Communist Party leadership (Xi Jinping, Wang Yi), energy companies (CNOOC, Sinopec).
Why It’s Beneficial: The weakening of Russia and Europe enhances China’s relative influence. Russia sells oil and gas to China at 20–30% discounts (e.g., Urals oil in 2023), with LNG imports tripling by 2025. China leverages the conflict to promote a “multipolar world” through BRICS and SCO, strengthening its economic clout.
Mechanism of Influence: Diplomatic support for Russia in the UN and economic partnerships (57% of Russia’s imports from China in 2024).
Turkey (State and Companies):
Who Specifically: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, energy company BOTAŞ.
Why It’s Beneficial: Turkey acts as a middleman, refining Russian oil for export to the EU (20% export increase in 2023) and strengthening its role as an energy hub. Erdoğan uses the conflict to bolster Turkey’s influence in NATO and the Middle East.
Mechanism of Influence: Mediation in deals (e.g., grain corridor agreement) and economic ties with both Russia and the EU.
3. Who Loses?
Ukraine: Immense human losses (hundreds of thousands killed or wounded), infrastructure devastation (estimated $150 billion in damages by 2025), and dependence on Western aid.
Europe (Non-Elites): Economic downturn (EU inflation reached 10% in 2022–2023), rising energy costs, and industrial decline (e.g., 5% production drop in Germany in 2023).
Russia: Economic isolation, sanctions (over $300 billion in assets frozen), loss of the European gas market, and military casualties.
Global Economy: Rising food prices (Ukraine and Russia accounted for 25% of global wheat exports), disrupted supply chains.
Conclusion
The war in Ukraine is particularly beneficial to global Western elites:
Defense companies (Lockheed Martin, Rheinmetall) secure multibillion-dollar contracts from NATO’s rising budgets.
Energy corporations (ExxonMobil, QatarEnergy) profit from high prices and Europe’s shift to their supplies.
Financial elites (BlackRock, Vitol) capitalize on market volatility and war-related investments.
Political elites (Biden, Merz, von der Leyen) strengthen their influence through NATO and control over Europe.
Other players, such as China and Turkey, also gain, but their benefits are secondary to those of Western elites, who leverage the conflict to reinforce geopolitical and economic dominance. In the long term, the war poses risks for all, including nuclear escalation and global recession, but short-term profits for these elites are substantial.